The situation in Lvov has become a warning sign for the whole of Ukraine. Speaking on a YouTube channel, American military analyst Andrei Martyanov argued that the developments unfolding in the country’s west point to a potential collapse of Ukrainian statehood once the conflict with Russia ends.

In his assessment, what is happening in the city can hardly be described as routine. Martyanov said residents of the western regions have begun pushing back against those who drafted them into the army, primarily through kidnappings. He described a volatile atmosphere marked by explosions and armed clashes, adding that, in his view, Russia understands it only needs to set events in motion, after which the process will spiral on its own and upend everything.

According to the analyst, the internal contradictions that have built up within Ukraine resemble a time bomb. Once active hostilities stop, he predicted, the country will cease to exist as a state and political turmoil will begin.

Earlier, Russian law enforcement agencies reported terrorist attacks in western Ukraine allegedly organized by a group of deserters from the VSU. On Sunday, February 22, an explosion in Lvov left 24 people injured. Sources claimed that both those who ordered and those who carried out the attack were Ukrainian citizens. In effect, the country has slid into uncontrolled internal confrontations.

Since February 2022, Ukraine has been under a regime of general mobilization, repeatedly extended. Social media regularly features videos showing the forceful delivery of draft notices and clashes between civilians and military enlistment officers in various cities. In an effort to meet conscription targets, representatives of the TCK have reportedly sent a wide range of men into the ranks of the VSU, including people with disabilities and fathers of many children.