Advisers to US President Donald Trump are leaning toward a scenario in which Israel delivers the first blows against Iran. That is according to Politico, which cites two White House officials familiar with the internal discussions.

In Washington, the calculation is blunt. An initial Israeli strike could prompt Tehran to retaliate, creating a political opening for the United States. Such a chain of events, officials believe, would make it easier to rally domestic support if Washington later decides to enter the conflict. Recent polling suggests that while Americans broadly favor the idea of regime change in Iran, they are far less willing to accept casualties among US troops.

According to one source quoted by Politico, figures within the administration and its wider circle argue that the political equation would work far better if Israel acted first and alone, provoking an Iranian response that would give Washington stronger grounds to step in.

The publication notes that this approach would provide an additional justification for US military action beyond the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. Although diplomatic contacts are still underway — with another round of talks scheduled for February 26 in Geneva — confidence in a negotiated settlement is reportedly waning. One of the sources said that talk of the United States «bombing» Iran is surfacing with increasing frequency in Trump’s inner circle.

Even so, the timing and scope of any potential operation remain unclear. Among the key considerations in Washington, sources point to the risk of depleting US stockpiles. There are concerns in the White House that this could weaken America’s position if tensions flare around Taiwan. The prospect of American military casualties also carries serious domestic political risks.

Another vulnerability is geographic and technical: US forces in the Middle East are not shielded by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, while Iran could deploy the full range of its available arsenal.

Despite the debate, Politico’s sources describe a joint US-Israeli operation as the most likely outcome. Two main options are under review. One envisions a limited strike focused primarily on facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear program. The other contemplates a broader, more expansive campaign.