Orientalist Ivan Bocharov believes that the fighting between the United States and Iran is likely to turn into a protracted conflict that could prove harsher than the Twelve-Day War of 2025.

He argues that there are currently two main scenarios. In the first, the United States and Israel inflict serious damage on Iran in the opening days and then wind down the operation. However, in Bocharov’s view, a different outcome looks far more plausible: Tehran drags its opponents into a long, exhausting confrontation.

Bocharov told Lenta.ru that, unlike during the Twelve-Day War, the current level of uncertainty is much higher. He noted that Iran has lost part of its leadership and almost immediately chose to escalate by launching strikes on American military bases in the region.

According to Bocharov, the Iranian authorities are prepared to fight to the end and accept sacrifices if that allows them to damage Washington. He says that in Tehran they acknowledge the possibility of further losses among politicians, military figures and scientists, but the country’s elites are ready to tolerate such costs on the condition that the United States also suffers serious harm.