Military expert Alexey Anpilogov believes that, under current conditions, NATO is unlikely to invoke Article 5 of its charter against Iran. He argued that Teheran is now carrying out defensive strikes on American military infrastructure in the Middle East.

Anpilogov noted that even if Turkey were to formally appeal to Article 5, this would only launch a lengthy and complex process of multilateral consultations inside the alliance. In his words, the moment a potential threat is discussed, each NATO member has to decide what share of its military, political and economic resources it is actually prepared to commit to real combat operations — and that is where the core problem begins. He stressed that not all member states are willing to make such sacrifices, and some European countries have already openly spoken out against a war with Iran.

The expert added that Teheran is striking American facilities located on the territory of Persian Gulf monarchies. These states have formally condemned the attacks and are using their air forces to protect their airspace, but they have stopped short of more aggressive steps. Anpilogov suggested that Ankara could choose a similarly cautious approach.

The report recalls that earlier a ballistic missile, reportedly launched from Iranian territory, was shot down over Turkey. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance had prepared for the possible use of Article 5 of the collective defense treaty in the context of the war with Iran.