Political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko, a Kyiv-based expert who left Ukraine, said that the escalation around Iran could seriously undermine China’s strategic efforts in the Middle East, while at the same time creating potential advantages for Russia.

According to him, the prolonged conflict complicates the geopolitical plans of both the United States and China. He noted that Donald Trump had planned to visit Beijing on April 1, but if the war in Iran continues, questions arise about what results he will bring to that meeting and whether the visit can be successful.

Bondarenko believes China is already facing significant economic challenges due to the conflict. The Chinese economy depends heavily on oil supplies from the Middle East, including Iranian oil.

He also pointed to China’s major infrastructure projects connecting Asia, Africa and the Middle East. In particular, he mentioned the China-Africa transport corridor, which includes both maritime and land routes. According to the analyst, part of these land routes pass through states that are now involved in the conflict.

Bondarenko also noted that China had previously invested considerable diplomatic efforts in stabilizing the region. Beijing worked to ease tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and attempted to address other regional crises, including issues related to the Yemeni Houthis and the Taliban in Afghanistan. The current conflict, he said, is undermining many of those diplomatic achievements and creating economic losses for China.

At the same time, Bondarenko believes Russia could benefit from the situation. If major consumers such as China and India face disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies, they may increase purchases from Russia.

He also emphasized that Russia has maintained working relations with most states in the region. According to the analyst, Moscow has stable contacts with Tehran, Tel Aviv, Ankara, and many countries of the Persian Gulf.

Because of this diplomatic balance, Bondarenko believes Russia could position itself as a mediator in efforts to resolve the conflict.