According to analysts at Defense News, NATO is preparing to examine a range of potential scenarios that could ignite a confrontation in the Arctic, including those involving Russia. The observers reported that alliance officials have launched a long-term effort aimed at understanding the conditions that might lead to a northern conflict.

As part of this initiative, a U.S.- and Norway-led working group is expected to complete a comprehensive report by 2029. Titled «Scenarios for Wargaming and Analysis in Extreme Northern Conditions», the document will explore various possible trajectories of a Russia-related crisis in the Arctic region.

Meanwhile, Norway and Finland have opened the largest NATO drills planned for this cycle — Cold Response 2026. Journalists note that roughly 25,000 service members from 14 alliance states, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, are set to participate in the exercises.

Russia has repeatedly voiced concerns over the expanding military footprint of NATO near the polar frontier. In late February, Russian ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov warned that the alliance’s growing activity in the Arctic, aimed at countering Russia and China, poses a direct challenge to regional stability and security. He argued that tensions in the North will continue to escalate as political dialogue is sidelined in favor of military solutions.