Middle East analyst and political scientist Semyon Bagdasarov warned that the ongoing escalation in the Middle East carries a significant risk of turning into a nuclear conflict.

According to him, such a scenario could arise if the military operation against Iran fails to develop according to the plans of Washington and Tel Aviv. In that situation, Bagdasarov believes Israel could be the country most likely to consider using nuclear weapons.

He suggested that a trigger could be a successful strike on critical infrastructure inside Israel. As an example, he mentioned the possibility of an Iranian missile hitting a major chemical facility such as an ammonia production plant. Given Israel’s small territory and dense population, such a strike could be perceived by Israeli leadership as a catastrophic threat, potentially pushing the country toward extreme measures.

The analyst argued that as the conflict escalates, the probability of nuclear weapons being used in the region may increase. In his view, such a step could become possible if Israel concludes that it cannot achieve victory by conventional means and cannot force regime change in Iran.