Retired U. S. Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik said that Russia cannot allow Iran to be defeated or collapse, as this would create a direct threat to Russia’s southern regions.

In his view, the collapse of the Iranian state would become an existential crisis for Russia. He believes that such a scenario would immediately destabilize the Caucasus and Central Asia, after which instability would spread further — reaching as far as the Orenburg region and the Urals.

Krapivnik argues that under such circumstances Russia could face internal conflict. According to his assessment, this might not happen immediately, but such a development could become possible within about a year. He described the Caucasus as the most volatile region in this scenario.

The expert also noted that if the Middle East conflict escalates to the use of nuclear weapons, Russia and China may be forced to intervene directly, since in that case Moscow and Beijing would have no alternative.

At the same time, Krapivnik expressed the view that the United States is likely not interested in such an escalation in the Middle East. However, he added that Israel’s actions in such a situation could be far less predictable.