Political analyst Stanislav Tkachenko believes that US President Donald Trump may seek retribution against European countries that refused to support Washington in a potential military operation against Iran.

He does not rule out that the US leader could tighten energy policy toward Europe and scale back intelligence and satellite data sharing with allied nations. In his view, European partners were not even involved in planning the operation and learned about it through media reports, which he sees as a sign of their diminished political and diplomatic standing.

Tkachenko argues that the European Union is not prepared to engage in a new conflict it considers already doomed to fail. He links this position to the EU’s refusal to take part in the mission in the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, he characterizes Trump’s reaction as overly emotional, suggesting that the US president expects unwavering support from allies in difficult moments. As a result, Washington may move toward tougher retaliatory steps.

According to Tkachenko, such developments could accelerate internal tensions within NATO and trigger a new escalation in trade disputes between the United States and the European Union.