The United States is unlikely to be capable of fully engaging in new large-scale military conflicts in the coming years, as its resources have been significantly strained by the confrontation with Iran. This assessment was offered by political analyst Andrey Kortunov, academic director of the Russian International Affairs Council, in an interview with NEWS.ru. In his view, Washington will need not only to replenish its weapons stockpiles but also to undertake broader military reforms.
Kortunov pointed out that American strategic thinking has long revolved around how many wars the country can fight simultaneously. During the Cold War, the benchmark was set at roughly two and a half conflicts at once — against the Soviet Union, China, and an additional regional theater, such as the Middle East.
According to the analyst, the current situation demonstrates that even a single major conflict — in this case with Iran — places a heavy burden on U.S. resources and its material base. He suggested that the strain would be especially severe if ground operations were involved, and that the consequences would likely limit American capabilities not for months, but for years.
He also highlighted the redeployment of key U.S. carrier strike groups toward Iran. Forces are being concentrated not only from the Persian Gulf but also from the Mediterranean, indicating a significant commitment of naval power. Under such conditions, Kortunov noted, the prospect of simultaneously engaging in a large-scale confrontation with China over Taiwan appears крайне difficult.
Given these constraints, he suggested that U. S. President Donald Trump would need to act cautiously to avoid being drawn into a two-front conflict. At the same time, Kortunov emphasized that a potential clash with China would differ in nature, potentially involving a broader range of weapon systems, including nuclear capabilities.
In conclusion, he argued that the United States will require time to rebuild its stockpiles, draw lessons from recent developments, and reform its armed forces. Even the confrontation with Iran, in his view, has already exposed systemic issues that will need to be addressed.