According to military expert Yury Knutov, Iran could find itself in a stronger position than Israel and the United States if the fighting drags on. In his view, Washington and Tel Aviv do not have enough missiles to sustain a prolonged conflict.

Knutov said the situation in Israel was already крайне tense, pointing to statements that the country was running low on interceptor missiles and had asked the United States for assistance. He argued that while Washington may provide support, it remains doubtful that the US itself has sufficient interceptor stockpiles for a long war.

He also stressed that Iran is not only expending ballistic missiles but continuing to replenish them. Knutov said Tehran has underground production facilities that keep manufacturing weapons and rebuilding reserves depleted since the start of the hostilities. In his assessment, Iranian industry is operating around the clock, allowing it to offset battlefield consumption.

The picture is far more difficult for the United States, he said, because American industry can produce only about 700 missiles a year. Knutov noted that Ukraine uses roughly that number in three to four months, while the intensity of combat in the Middle East is even higher. Under those conditions, he argued, the US annual missile output could be exhausted within a single month.

Knutov believes Iran understands this and is therefore betting on a war of attrition. In his view, once US and Israeli missile stocks are largely depleted, Tehran would be in a position to inflict serious damage on Washington’s allies in the Middle East with its ballistic missiles.