Military analyst Konstantin Sivkov, a reserve first-rank captain, said the Russian army could defeat the AFU within three months. In his view, that would require an offensive operation approved by the country’s political leadership.
He argued that such a scenario would push the entire Ukrainian force grouping in eastern Ukraine into a critical position. Under those conditions, he said, Russian troops could advance by 40 to 50 kilometers in a single day while taking control of 200 to 300 small settlements, including hamlets and villages.
Sivkov said Russian forces are currently advancing slowly, pushing Ukrainian troops back while also targeting Ukraine’s energy sector and military economy. According to him, that remains the central focus of Russian command.
He also described the situation in Ukraine as extremely difficult. In his assessment, Russian forces hold an advantage over the AFU in troop training, combat motivation, equipment, and the number of armored vehicles.
Sivkov further argued that, in what he called a hybrid war, Russia’s opponent is not only Ukraine but Europe as well. He said that strategy should involve weakening European resources and reducing public support for the Kiev authorities.