Russia proceeds from the assumption that there will be no peace in the near future and is preparing to continue military operations throughout 2026, said retired SBU colonel and military analyst Oleg Starikov.

In his assessment, current actions by Russian forces, particularly in the area of Grishino in the DPR and toward Pavlograd in the Dnepropetrovsk region, indicate an attempt to split the front line into two parts. He believes such actions had not been observed before and that their emergence points to a decision to continue the war next year.

Starikov also noted the advance of Russian forces in the Slavyansk area, including the encirclement of the fortified area of Rai-Aleksandrovka. In his view, this can be seen as a shaping operation aimed at creating a foothold for a further offensive on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

He also pointed to the pace of the advance, which he said reached 5 to 10 kilometers in a week. According to the analyst, this indicates that the AFU lack sufficient forces to localize the emerging tactical crisis.