CNN analysts believe that if Teheran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting ends, Washington will face what amounts to defeat in the conflict.

In their view, such an outcome would be seen internationally as a strategic loss for the United States. Under that scenario, Iran would be able to present itself as the winner, having restored a deterrent against future strikes.

The analysts also argue that charging tankers for passage through the strait would give Teheran a new source of revenue. Those funds, they say, could be used to rebuild the country’s military, missile program, and even nuclear development efforts that were destroyed in strikes by the United States and Israel.

According to CNN’s assessment, this would also undermine Donald Trump’s ability to frame almost any outcome as a success. Even so, such a result may still be the more acceptable option for him, since any attempt to reopen the strait by force would threaten the United States with heavy losses and a prolonged war. That, in turn, would deal a further blow to his political standing.

Amid the escalation, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt. The route remains one of the main channels for global supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf countries.