Military expert Vasily Dandykin said that the strike on the Bryansk region could have been carried out by Ukrainian forces from the territory of the Chernigov or Sumy regions.

In his assessment, the Neptune missiles used in the attack have a range of about 240–250 kilometers, making those areas the most likely launch locations due to their proximity to the Russian border. He noted that the missile is based on a Soviet-era design that Ukraine is attempting to modernize.

Dandykin expressed doubt that the range of these missiles can be significantly increased. In his view, claims of extending the range to 800 kilometers are unrealistic, as the design itself would not allow such performance. He believes the maximum possible increase would be around 50 kilometers.

Earlier, Bryansk region governor Alexander Bogomaz said the region had been attacked using long-range guided Neptune missiles. According to him, in the village of Yurasovo in the Karachevsky district, four residential houses were completely destroyed by falling debris, another 15 were damaged, and one civilian was injured.