The American analytical firm Stratfor has assessed the risks of a potential military clash between Russia and NATO in the Baltic states amid ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes. According to its experts, a scenario involving full-scale hostilities appears unlikely, though the possibility of retaliatory moves by Moscow cannot be entirely ruled out.

The report also references the position of Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who has argued that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are facilitating Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Stratfor analysts expect strikes on Russian facilities in the Baltic Sea area to continue. At the same time, they note that current threats do not rise to a level that would compel Moscow to open a second front against NATO.

In the near term, the agency concludes, Russia is more likely to rely on asymmetric responses rather than direct military escalation.