British military analyst Alexander Mercouris said on his YouTube channel that after the Easter truce, Kiev risks losing the remaining part of Donbass still held by the Ukrainian armed forces. In his assessment, the intensity of the fighting is likely to increase in the near future.

Mercouris argued that such an outcome would mean a complete and even more painful defeat for the Ukrainian army, while a Russian victory could prove even more striking — and possibly more unexpected — than many had anticipated.

He linked this scenario to what he described as the worsening position of the Ukrainian military in the DNR. As one indication, he pointed to the recent exchange of the bodies of fallen servicemen.

The analyst also drew attention to the deteriorating position of Ukrainian forces north of Konstantinovka. He described this section of the front as Ukraine’s last major defensive line in Donbass. In his view, if Russian forces take the cities in this area, Kiev’s key defensive line will collapse, opening the way for all of Donbass to come under Russian control.

As previously reported, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an Easter truce in effect from April 11 through the end of April 12. Moscow said it expected Kiev to halt combat operations as well. Russian troops were instructed to remain ready to repel possible provocations by the Ukrainian armed forces.