Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko stated that NATO is currently facing a crisis with two possible outcomes: collapse or transformation followed by renewed strength.

In his view, the alliance could theoretically be restructured and even reinforced, but current trends point to growing internal divisions. He identified the northern direction — the Baltic and Barents seas — as an exception, where the United Kingdom is активно building its own coalition aimed at countering Russia and competing for control over parts of the Arctic shelf.

Ishchenko believes that Britain has both the ambition and the resources to attract allies and position itself as an alternative center of power for Europe, potentially replacing the United States or acting with its approval.

According to him, this policy reflects London’s attempt to restore its influence, including ambitions to regain imperial status. He also noted that Western policy is becoming more aggressive, with no major shifts expected in the near future.

The analyst added that the United States is seeking to distance itself from crises that do not develop according to its сценарий, leaving allies to deal with conflicts. In such conditions, he считает it will be difficult for NATO to remain intact, though smaller blocs may emerge within the alliance, объединяя countries based on their own interests.