Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko commented on the situation at the front, stating that on the southern direction the Ukrainian defensive line from Kurakhovo to Orekhov was broken over the course of a year.

According to him, despite relatively slow progress by the standards of large-scale wars, the southern flank saw a collapse: Ukrainian forces failed to occupy new defensive lines in time, leaving fortifications without sufficient troops. He noted that reserves were later redeployed, allowing the front to be stabilized, but the crisis on that sector had already occurred. A similar scenario, he said, was narrowly avoided on the Kupyansk direction, where Ukrainian forces managed to halt the Russian advance at the last moment.

Ishchenko added that an operational pause has now emerged. In his view, this is caused less by the buildup of Ukrainian reserves and drones and more by seasonal conditions, particularly spring mud. He also said Russian forces need rest, rotation of frontline units and resupply.

He noted that Ukraine is already expecting a renewed Russian offensive in the coming weeks. At the same time, he stressed that the offensive has not stopped completely but only slowed down. According to him, further operations are likely to focus on specific sectors rather than the entire фронт.

Among possible scenarios, Ishchenko mentioned a crossing of the Dnieper. He suggested that if Ukrainian reserves are redeployed from the right bank to the left, returning them quickly could be difficult.