In an interview with Welt, German political scientist Carlo Masala said a conflict between Russia and NATO could begin before 2029. In his view, the alliance is not ready for such a confrontation at this stage.

Masala argued that the timeline may be shorter than the 2029–2030 period currently drawing NATO’s attention. He believes the scenario could unfold earlier.

The political scientist also said Germany’s command understands the possible threat from Russia, but the country’s armed forces remain poorly prepared. He noted that purchases of military systems and the accelerated deployment of drone technologies had long been neglected.

Masala also pointed to Germany’s lack of readiness in civil defense. According to him, the Interior Ministry is behind in developing the necessary concepts. He added that, despite awareness of the threat, German society still has no consensus on the likelihood of a possible conflict.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed that Russia could attack NATO countries within the coming months. Later, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said he saw no reason for Moscow to attack alliance members or test Article 5 on mutual defense.