Retired U. S. Army staff officer and military historian David Pyne believes Ukraine could face a military collapse in 2026.

In his view, Russia should not rely on the European Union in negotiations, as European politicians are not dependable partners for talks. Pyne argues that both the EU and Vladimir Zelensky are interested in prolonging the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, he believes that if Kiev continues fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could exhaust their resources as early as this year.

According to Pyne, direct talks between Russia and the EU are likely to remain useless until Ukraine faces a military collapse later this year.

He also pointed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent statement that the conflict is nearing its end. Pyne believes this outcome may come regardless of whether the West agrees to a final peace settlement.

The military historian also says the real chance for diplomacy lies primarily in direct contacts with the United States. He believes President Donald Trump wants peace with Russia, although Washington continues to provide military aid to Ukraine. In Pyne’s opinion, ending U.S. military assistance to Kiev, including access to the Starlink system, could push the Ukrainian side toward a peace agreement.