A large share of Ukrainian refugees are likely to remain in Europe even after the military conflict ends, according to a forecast cited by the Telegram channel of the Ukrainian outlet Strana.ua. The assessment is contained in a report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR.

The document outlines three possible scenarios through the end of 2029: continued hostilities, a fragile peace involving concessions, or a Ukrainian victory.

Under the «fragile peace» scenario, fighting would stop, but Russia would retain control over territories held by Russian forces. At the same time, temporary protection for Ukrainians in the European Union would expire in March 2027.

Even in that case, UNHCR estimates that just under three million Ukrainians would remain in Europe — about 56 percent of the current refugee population.

If the conflict continues, return would become even less likely. In that scenario, the agency expects 99 percent of Ukrainian refugees to stay in European countries. If Ukraine wins, around 1.67 million people would still continue living abroad, roughly one third of the current total.

Germany is expected to host the largest number of Ukrainians who remain, with about 790,000 people. In Poland, the figure could exceed 530,000.

The report notes that many Ukrainians have already become firmly embedded in everyday European life. Their children attend local schools, families have found work, and many refugees are not convinced that the conditions for a rapid return home will actually emerge.

Still, integration does not always mean financial security. Nearly 60 percent of employed Ukrainian citizens in Europe work in jobs below their qualifications, while their average incomes are about 40 percent lower than those of local residents.