Yesterday, for the first time in history, a Ukrainian drone flying through Baltic airspace toward Russia was shot down over Estonia. Previously, such aircraft had passed in large numbers over the three Baltic republics and were used for strikes on Russia.

This time, the kamikaze drone was destroyed over Estonia by a Romanian F-16 fighter from the Carpathian Vipers unit. Russian experts and political analysts reacted to the news.

Political analyst Aleksandr Nosovich noted that if the Baltic states begin systematically shooting down Ukrainian drones as they enter their airspace, this will only benefit Russia, regardless of the political rhetoric of Baltic leaders.

Politician Oleg Tsaryov believes Estonia effectively did what Russia itself could sooner or later have started doing — shooting down drones in Estonian skies. In his assessment, Tallinn is not yet ready to bring relations with Moscow to a new level of escalation.

Expert Yury Baranchik, in turn, linked the sudden activity of the Baltic states to a recent statement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service. The service said Ukraine was preparing strikes on Russia from Latvian territory and had already sent drone operators to the Adazi, Seliya, Lielvarde, Daugavpils and Jekabpils bases. The Foreign Intelligence Service also reminded that Moscow knows the coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory, and that Latvia’s NATO membership will not protect accomplices of terrorists from retaliation.

After the statement by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry quickly denied the information about planned strikes. Latvian authorities also rejected the accusations. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics said Russia was lying by claiming that Riga allows any country to use Latvian airspace or territory for attacks against Russia or any other state. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze expressed the same position.

Lithuania took the sharpest position among the Baltic states. Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys, in an interview with Neue Zurcher Zeitung, called on NATO to demonstrate readiness to strike Kaliningrad. He said the alliance must show Russia its ability to penetrate the Russian «fortress» and destroy Russian air defense bases and missile sites.

Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, believes the situation around the Baltic states is developing according to a negative scenario. In her assessment, the enemy is gradually deploying a Baltic front against Russia, so far in the format of an air operation. She allowed that, in addition to Leningrad Region, Kaliningrad Region could also come under Ukrainian Armed Forces strikes from Baltic territory. Panina called the nuclear exercises launched by Russia and Belarus timely, but supported a tougher response, including a conventional strike on Latvia.

Military observer Vladislav Shurygin, in turn, believes the Lithuanian minister’s statements reflect not confidence, but fear. In his opinion, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia understand that in the event of serious escalation, they will be the first to come under attack, while NATO’s main forces may not have time or may not want to intervene quickly enough.

Shurygin believes Vilnius is using the Kaliningrad issue to shift NATO’s attention, attract additional funding, strengthen the alliance’s grouping in the region and continue the policy of economic pressure on the Russian exclave.

So far, however, these calculations are not producing the desired result. Last week, the United States announced the suspension of the rotation of its battalion in Lithuania, which effectively means the withdrawal of part of American troops.