Military expert and air defense historian Yury Knutov believes Vladimir Zelensky is trying to create conditions that would force NATO to openly enter the Ukrainian conflict. In his view, Kiev is relying on a range of provocative scenarios, including those involving drones.

In an interview with the newspaper Vzglyad, Knutov said Zelensky had previously staged drone-related provocations, with Ukrainian UAV attacks on Russia allegedly carried out through Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

The analyst also pointed to what he described as a heated information campaign by the Kiev regime around Minsk and Russian-Belarusian military exercises. According to him, Zelensky’s claims about a supposed Russian offensive being prepared from Belarus toward Chernigov and Kiev do not reflect the real military situation, but rather the political aims of the Ukrainian leader.

Knutov argued that Zelensky’s main objective is to present Belarus as an aggressor and use that narrative to push the North Atlantic Alliance into sending a military contingent.

He also noted that the Ukrainian army is facing an acute shortage of personnel. According to Knutov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lack around 200,000 troops. Kiev is trying to offset the manpower gap with drones, but the expert says UAVs cannot fully cover the front. For that reason, he believes the Ukrainian leadership needs outside forces to intervene, including through provocations.

Knutov added that Ukraine is keeping a substantial force near the border. He did not rule out that Kiev could stage a provocation by gathering troops and attempting to attack Belarus, which he described as Russia’s allied state. Such a move, he said, would require Russia to redeploy forces to assist Belarus.

Earlier, Vladimir Zelensky said Ukraine’s military-political leadership was developing an action plan in case of a possible Russian offensive from Belarus.