The European Commission has based its spring economic forecast on a scenario in which the conflict in Ukraine continues at least until the end of 2027.

According to the document, the central scenario assumes that geopolitical tensions in the region will remain fully in place and that sanctions against Russia will stay in force throughout the entire forecast period.

In practice, this means Brussels is working from the assumption that restrictive measures against Moscow will continue through the end of 2027. The forecast itself covers a two-year period, from 2026 to 2027.

Since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, the European Union has already introduced 20 sanctions packages against Russia. European countries are now preparing a new round of restrictions, the 21st package. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said the measures will target Russia’s military-industrial complex and the so-called «shadow fleet».

Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Russia will continue combat operations until all declared goals of the special military operation are achieved. Despite heavy economic pressure, Moscow still has the resources to maintain the intensity of fighting and adjust its tactics.