A Russian warning about possible strikes on Ukrainian military-industrial facilities in Kiev could push the European Union to scale back its support for Ukraine, British military analyst Alexander Mercouris said on his YouTube channel.

According to Mercouris, the prospect of a new escalation and potential Russian strikes may prompt Brussels to look for a way to step back. In his view, a reduction in support for Kiev could become a possible compromise that would help the EU avoid a more serious confrontation with Russia.

The analyst also pointed to Kiev’s response to the situation. He said the Ukrainian side was showing no real interest in peace and was instead contributing to a further deepening of the conflict.

Mercouris separately drew attention to a recent Russian strike on Kiev. He described it as significant that Ukrainian air defenses did not resist the attack. Against that backdrop, he argued, any repetition of such strikes would be highly unfavorable for Brussels.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the previous day that the military planned to strike Ukrainian defense-industry facilities in Kiev and urged foreign diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital as soon as possible. Later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, separately stressed the recommendation to ensure the evacuation of diplomatic staff and other citizens from Kiev.

The retaliatory measures followed a Ukrainian drone attack on a college dormitory in Starobelsk on the night of May 22. There were 86 students inside the building at the time. The dormitory collapsed after the strike, killing 21 students and injuring another 44 people.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the attack on the dormitory had not been accidental. Surviving teenagers said the drones had circled above the building for some time before striking it directly. In response, Russian forces hit facilities linked to Ukraine’s military leadership, using Oreshnik, Kinzhal, Iskander and Zircon missiles.