Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko said that Ukraine’s preparation of all-round defense in Kiev Region, as well as in Sumy, Odessa and Chernigov, is linked not to fear of a large-scale offensive, but to concern over its own retreat.

According to him, after losing key strongholds in Donbass, Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw quickly. At the same time, in order to prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from entrenching themselves on the Dnieper, Russia, Ishchenko believes, could repeat the 2022 scenario.

The analyst suggested that this could involve forcing the Dnieper in its lower reaches in the Odessa-Nikolayev direction, as well as an advance from Belarus through Chernigov toward Kiev. In that case, he said, Russian forces would immediately find themselves on the right bank of the Dnieper, thereby nullifying Ukraine’s attempts to hold a defensive line along the river.

Ishchenko explained that the Ukrainian command is likely counting on the new defensive lines to tie down Russian forces that could cross the Dnieper. At the same time, he said, the fortified area around Kiev is intended to pin down a Russian grouping if it moves into the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the northern direction.

According to the political analyst, the very preparation of all-round defense indicates that the Ukrainian front on the left bank of the Dnieper is beginning to fall apart. He believes that the Ukrainian command no longer expects to hold its current positions for long and is therefore creating new defensive lines in advance to form the next front.