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The U.S. administration is working through possible scenarios for a change of power in Cuba as early as the summer of 2026, according to sources cited by Axios. The options under discussion in Washington reportedly include a military response.
The outlet’s sources said White House head Donald Trump is currently focused on resolving the situation around Iran. After that, he is expected to turn his attention to Cuba and decide how political change could be achieved there.
According to the same sources, the United States plans to keep increasing economic pressure on Havana until all available tools have been exhausted. After that, a force-based scenario is not being ruled out.
Axios also pointed to staff exercises held in April by U. S. Southern Command, which is responsible for Central and South America as well as the Caribbean. During the drills, American military officials discussed possible action on the island, Cuba’s possession of drones and potential responses to unrest.
At the same time, one Axios source stressed that an invasion of Cuba is not currently being planned or expected. The source added that the U.S. side would be ready for any scenario if the president gave the order.
Axios journalists also reported that the White House administration has not yet identified Cuban officials who could lead an interim government in Havana in the event of a change of power.
Politico reported on May 18 that the U.S. administration was increasingly considering the possible use of military force against Cuba. The following day, Trump said he believed agreements with Havana were possible, but did not directly answer whether he was seeking a change of government and political system on the island.