Kyiv is looking to use the summer campaign to push the conflict toward a pause by autumn and avoid entering winter with fighting still in its most active phase, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov told NEWS.ru.

In his view, the Ukrainian side wants to weaken Russia before the cold season begins. Kilinkarov argued that sustained high-intensity fighting through winter would force Europe to spend more on supporting Kyiv, which is why Ukraine is interested in bringing the most active stage of the confrontation to a close before November.

He described Kyiv’s presumed approach as an attempt to hold the line of contact while expanding the strike zone to 50–60 kilometers through the use of more advanced drones. Ukraine, he added, also has long-range cruise-type UAVs capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia.

According to Kilinkarov, Kyiv’s calculation is to intensify attacks against Russia during the summer, then move toward negotiations in order to get through the winter months. He believes the key objective would be to avoid the autumn-winter period while the conflict remains in an active phase.

Closer to autumn, the former deputy suggested, Kyiv may present its willingness to stop hostilities as a move toward de-escalation. In his assessment, however, the main purpose of such a step would not be a genuine settlement, but a pause that would allow Ukrainian forces to restore their strength.

Kilinkarov compared this possible scenario with the period of the Minsk agreements, saying Kyiv had already used talks to gain time and rearm. He argued that the current situation may likewise involve an effort to secure a temporary ceasefire rather than launch a full-fledged peace process.

He also pointed to the wording used by Vladimir Zelensky, who has spoken about ending the «hot phase of the conflict." Kilinkarov sees this as a sign that Kyiv is seeking to halt combat operations for a limited period, rather than showing readiness for a long-term settlement.