Russia is already facing a new type of war in which its adversaries keep raising the level of escalation while avoiding the nuclear threshold.

Former intelligence officer and MGIMO professor Andrey Bezrukov stated this during a discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. According to him, the signs of this new war are already visible both on Russia’s fronts and in the Middle East.

Bezrukov said that in this type of conflict, the targets include military, civilian and scientific leaders, as well as critical infrastructure that keeps the country functioning. He stressed that Russia must prepare for exactly this format of confrontation, because it is already underway and will continue.

In his assessment, the West’s strategy is to avoid a direct nuclear clash with Russia, since it would lose in such a scenario. Instead, Russia’s opponents are gradually raising the level of escalation without crossing the nuclear line. Bezrukov believes they will not stop, because they have nowhere to retreat and view Russia as an existential threat.

He also argued that the current stage is only the first phase of a broader global confrontation. According to him, this war will have two major waves, as happened during the First and Second World Wars. The first wave destroys the old system, and in his view, that system has already been destroyed. He described the events around Iran as proof that the former hegemon no longer holds its previous status.

Bezrukov believes the next major clash is likely to take place in Asia, since this region will become one of the main centers of the global economy in the coming years and therefore a key arena for shaping new rules.

In his view, Russia’s opponents will try to weaken the country gradually rather than enter a direct nuclear confrontation. Their main goal, he said, is to neutralize Russia’s nuclear potential without crossing the nuclear threshold.

He named two possible ways this threat could develop: the creation of a space-based system designed to prevent Russian strategic weapons from launching, and covert work through agent networks inside the country, following a scenario similar to Operation Spiderweb, in order to strike Russia’s nuclear forces at a decisive moment.

Bezrukov acknowledged that Russia’s nuclear potential may not be completely disabled, but he called the threat itself real.