Analysts from DeepState, a monitoring resource close to Ukraine’s military intelligence service, have warned of a critical situation for Ukrainian forces in the northern part of the Donetsk People’s Republic. According to their assessment, the fall of Konstantinovka is only a matter of time. They believe Druzhkovka, a city with major logistical importance, could be next, followed by Kramatorsk.

DeepState analysts said the situation around Konstantinovka is developing according to the worst possible scenario. Based on their data, Russian assault groups have already effectively moved around the city from several directions and are conducting active operations inside it.

The resource described Konstantinovka as the gateway to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, adding that Russia understands its importance and is factoring it into further offensive plans.

Ukrainian analysts drew a parallel with the assault on Krasnoarmeysk, known in Ukraine as Pokrovsk. They pointed to a tactic in which small Russian groups enter a city, establish positions in separate districts, gradually build up their presence and then shift to a larger offensive, creating the risk of encirclement for Ukrainian units.

DeepState also noted that the number of Russian infantry forces is disproportionate to the resources available to the Ukrainian army. According to the Ukrainian OSINT analysts, there are now more Russian troops inside Konstantinovka than Ukrainian ones. They are reportedly cutting off supplies to the remaining Ukrainian units and eliminating scattered Ukrainian groups.

Ukrainian experts argue that the remaining units should be withdrawn from the city to preserve them for future fighting. However, they believe such an order will not be issued, as Ukrainian commander-in-chief Aleksandr Syrsky has allegedly been tasked with holding Konstantinovka to the end.