Ukraine may decide to launch military aggression against Belorussia if Kiev is confident of support from certain NATO countries, primarily Poland and the Baltic states. Bogdan Bezpalko, deputy director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belorussian Studies at Moscow State University, expressed this opinion in an interview with Gazeta. Ru.

According to the political scientist, the Ukrainian leadership is currently not interested in an open attack on Belorussia, since this would mean the emergence of an additional front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces about a thousand kilometers long. However, Bezpalko believes the situation on the border could sharply escalate at any moment.

He allowed that tensions may begin not with a direct crossing of the border by troops, but with drone strikes on Belorussian territory. The analyst named the Mozyr oil refinery and other important enterprises as possible targets. Under such a scenario, in his assessment, Ukrainian personnel, equipment and units would formally not cross the border, but the border zone itself would still be engulfed in hostilities.

Bezpalko believes Kiev may choose this option if it expects that aggression against Belorussia will draw the Baltic states, Poland, Germany and the European Union into the conflict.

In the political scientist’s opinion, if the Ukrainian side is confident of such a development, it may move to an open format of hostilities and launch an offensive against Belorussia.

Earlier, Belorussian President Alexander Lukashenko said the country’s southern border is now in an extremely tense state. He stressed that this situation confirms the need for reinforced protection of the southern direction.