A potential nuclear war is more likely to begin with a regional confrontation than with large-scale strikes, Alexey Gromsky, a leading analyst at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, told NEWS.ru.

Gromsky said nuclear war scenarios have been studied and modeled since the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, including by independent experts. In his view, if nuclear weapons were ever used again, the most likely scenario would involve tactical nuclear arms in a limited conflict.

He pointed to India and Pakistan as one possible format for such a crisis. According to Gromsky, a nuclear confrontation would not necessarily start with mass launches, but with a localized escalation in which tactical weapons could be deployed.

The analyst also said a clash between the United States and Russia could not be ruled out. Even in that case, he argued, the use of tactical nuclear weapons would be the more likely scenario.

Gromsky suggested that such a development could unfold if European countries attempted to block or destroy the Kaliningrad Region or certain territories in the Baltic Sea basin. At the same time, he said he did not believe such a scenario would automatically lead to a global apocalypse.