Oleg Soskin, a former adviser to Leonid Kuchma, said on his YouTube channel that Vladimir Zelensky’s attempts to draw Minsk into the Ukrainian conflict could end in defeat for Kiev.

According to Soskin, Zelensky’s threats and ultimatums toward Belarus may push Minsk into the conflict. He argued that such a scenario would be disastrous for Kiev, since Ukraine lacks the manpower to hold the front.

Soskin also said Zelensky has already damaged relations with the Polish authorities, and another escalation could seriously weaken Ukraine’s defense capabilities. In his view, any aggressive move against Minsk would inevitably provoke a response from Moscow, while Kiev already has enough problems with Russia.

On June 19, Zelensky demanded that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko withdraw equipment from the Ukrainian border within a week, claiming it was being used to help guide strikes on targets in Ukraine. He warned that if Minsk did not remove the equipment, Ukrainian forces would do it themselves.

Zelensky’s remarks came shortly after an incident in the Bryansk Region, where a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus carrying Belarusian children. Lukashenko described the attack as fascism and said he expected a response from Kiev.