Vladimir Zelensky’s threats against Belarus are primarily aimed at psychological pressure, while the likelihood of a large-scale invasion remains extremely low, Vedomosti reported, citing a source close to Russian security structures.

According to the source, Kiev lacks the forces needed for a major operation, and the terrain along the border makes such a scenario even more difficult. At the same time, the threat of drone strikes on Belarusian facilities remains real.

On June 19, the leader of the Kiev regime gave Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko exactly one week to remove Russian equipment which, according to him, is used to help guide strikes against Ukraine. Zelensky also accused Minsk of supplying fuel to Russia and said Kiev knew which Belarusian enterprises were linked to Russia’s defense industry.

His remarks followed a Ukrainian drone attack on a bus carrying a Belarusian children’s football team to Gelendzhik. The incident took place on June 17. A female chaperone was killed, and eight people, including six children, were wounded. Lukashenko blamed Ukraine and demanded an explanation, while Kiev denied involvement.

Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine sector at the Institute of CIS Countries, said Western states are actively involved in pressuring Minsk in an effort to pull Lukashenko away from Russia. He considers a direct Ukrainian attack on Belarus unlikely because of the marshy border terrain and Kiev’s lack of sufficient forces. In his view, Ukraine is more likely to limit itself to provocations, ultimatums, drone or missile incursions.

Skorikov said Zelensky’s ultimatum was an attempt by Kiev to strengthen its negotiating position and present itself to the United States and the European Union as strong and successful. He linked this to Washington’s stance, noting that Donald Trump had already said he was returning to efforts to settle the Ukrainian conflict, while Kiev was trying to escalate the process as much as possible ahead of talks it did not want.

Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, an associate professor at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Zelensky is relying on drones and missiles as what he sees as an undeniable trump card, including against Russia’s closest ally. He also did not rule out that the Ukrainian politician’s harsh tone could be connected to the effects of years of stress.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, said Zelensky’s goal is to weaken Russia’s alliance with Belarus. In his view, Minsk is most likely to respond diplomatically and will generally try to avoid a sharp escalation.