Drone developer Sergey Tovkach said on Komsomolskaya Pravda radio that a turning point in countering Ukrainian drone attacks should come in the fall of 2026.

In his assessment, the first signs of stabilization may appear in about a month. However, a radical change in the situation, the specialist believes, will happen closer to autumn. Tovkach noted that his forecast is connected with promising developments and strategic decisions of which he is aware.

At the same time, he did not disclose details of these developments or the substance of the decisions. The developer only indicated that a noticeable strengthening of interception capabilities would require one and a half to two months.

Russia’s Defense Ministry has not officially commented on this forecast at the moment. Earlier, the ministry reported systematic work to strengthen the air defense system, but did not name specific timelines for a possible turning point in countering drones.

Thus, Tovkach’s statement remains his private assessment, based on his awareness of current processes in the field of UAV development and use.