Military analyst and retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok believes that Ukrainian forces could strike targets in Belarus after Vladimir Zelensky’s ultimatum expires. In his view, the Kiev regime has enough resolve to carry out such a provocation.

Khodarenok said that the scenario could involve a large-scale attack on targets in Belarus using unmanned aerial vehicles and Flamingo-type cruise missiles.

According to the analyst, such a strike could lead to Ukraine being recognized as an aggressor state under international law, seriously complicating Kiev’s position and creating personal political risks for Zelensky on the global stage.

At the same time, Khodarenok believes the West would likely interpret Ukraine’s actions as falling under Article 51 of the UN Charter, which allows for individual or collective self-defence in the event of an armed attack. The basis for such an argument, he said, could be claims that facilities in Belarus are allegedly being used to guide Russian drones toward targets in Ukraine.

If the Armed Forces of Ukraine do launch an attack, Khodarenok said the Belarusian army’s response should remain strictly defensive and be limited to repelling the strike. He added that President Alexander Lukashenko’s main task would be to prevent Belarus from being drawn into the war.