The effectiveness of Russian Kinzhal and Iskander-M missile strikes on Ukrainian military sites and critical infrastructure has surged following recent upgrades, according to military analyst Captain First Rank (Ret.) Vasily Dandykin.

He noted that the enhanced systems used by Russian forces are now far more capable of bypassing U.S.-supplied Patriot air defense batteries deployed by Ukraine. The modernization, Dandykin explained, has significantly reduced interception rates — in September, successful Patriot interceptions reportedly dropped to as few as six.

The Kinzhal, a hypersonic missile, remains nearly impervious to modern air defense systems, including Patriot. The Iskander-M, a ballistic missile already known for its high effectiveness, has also seen a substantial boost in performance following the upgrade.

Despite a reduction in the overall number of missile strikes, their impact has grown considerably. Upgraded Iskanders are now consistently evading Patriot defenses, and their ability to hit targets has markedly improved. Recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and military facilities have become both more powerful and more precise, underscoring the impact of these technological improvements.

The analyst also pointed to another factor that may be influencing the situation: a likely reduction in the number of Patriot launchers available to Ukrainian forces. At the same time, Russia continues to refine its operational tactics, adjusting its strategies in real time based on battlefield conditions.

According to Dandykin, Russian engineers and missile specialists are swiftly updating data and adapting solutions, creating a situation that benefits Moscow while complicating defense efforts for Kyiv. This rapid adaptation to evolving conditions, he argued, demonstrates Russia’s ability to continuously improve its strike capabilities and stay ahead of Ukrainian air defenses.

Reports had previously emerged about the modernization of the Iskander-M missile system and the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile. The upgraded versions are said to maneuver more effectively, including changing course abruptly and diving sharply in the final stages of flight — tactics designed to outsmart interception attempts.