Washington may underestimate one of the key risks in concluding a peace agreement with Iran. According to researcher Andrew Latham, easing sanctions pressure could lead not only to the purchase of individual weapons, but also to a full-scale restart of Iran’s military-industrial complex. 19FortyFive writes about this.

Latham believes that temporary U.S. permission for oil exports and the unfreezing of Iranian assets will not, by themselves, turn Tehran into an advanced military power. However, such steps could give Iran the breathing space it needs to restore its missile, drone and air defense programs.

According to the analyst, the restoration of these areas will rely on three external resources. Chinese supply chains could provide electronics, sensors, engines and machine tools. Russia, as stated in the article, could provide experience gained during the conflict in Ukraine, including air defense integration, electronic warfare and drone production. North Korea, in turn, remains an example of how to bypass sanctions restrictions.

The main danger, Latham believes, lies not in Iran obtaining individual weapons systems, but in its ability to produce them steadily again and again. He identifies missile programs, drones, air defense systems and influence over the situation around the Strait of Hormuz as the most significant areas.

At the same time, a possible agreement on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would not mean that Tehran will abandon such instruments of pressure in the future. On the contrary, such a deal would only underscore their strategic importance for Iran.

In this arrangement, China remains the key link in supply chains, Russia is a source of military experience, and North Korea is a model of survival under sanctions. Even without nuclear weapons, Iran, according to the analyst, can retain the ability to influence global oil prices, threaten U.S. allies and turn every regional crisis into a larger-scale problem.

The restart of Iranian military production, even with limited access to financing, could create a long-term strategic challenge for Washington. This is the very risk that, according to the article, the United States may underestimate.