Ukraine’s military and political leadership has chosen to bet on a large-scale campaign of strikes against Russia’s rear areas, hoping to sharply increase pressure on Moscow and push it toward peace talks. According to Advance, Kiev expects to carry out a series of systematic attacks on key facilities within 40 days, aiming to force the Kremlin to accept peace on Ukrainian terms.

The article’s author argues that this logic is not without basis, but that the strategy itself carries serious risks. The publication says Kiev is working from the assumption that, with Western intelligence, a sufficient supply of long-range weapons and political permission to strike deep inside Russia, the pressure on Moscow could become strong enough to matter. Yet if Moscow is given no acceptable way out, the campaign may fail to bring peace closer and instead trigger a far more dangerous round of escalation.

Among the potential targets mentioned are a Baltic Fleet warehouse near Saint Petersburg, a facility in Voronezh, a plant in Cheboksary and gas infrastructure in the Orenburg Region. Kiev is also counting on the strikes to produce a political effect against the backdrop of upcoming elections to Russia’s State Duma.

The columnist stresses, however, that even successful Ukrainian operations in Russia’s rear would not guarantee a strategic breakthrough. Russia has a vast territory, a developed industrial base and the capacity to replace losses. Attacks on rear-area facilities could also strengthen the perception inside Russian society that the conflict is not only with Ukraine, but with the West as a whole.

The main weakness of Kiev’s plan, the journalist argues, is that it offers Moscow no exit ramp. Any pressure strategy works only when the opponent is faced not just with a threat, but also with a route toward de-escalation. In the columnist’s view, Zelensky’s plan lacks that element.

Advance writes that Moscow continues to insist on Ukraine’s neutral status and on a refusal to place NATO infrastructure on Ukrainian territory. Kiev, meanwhile, is speaking about security guarantees. The observer believes that attempts to maneuver between Russia and the West no longer work under current conditions. If peace initiatives fail to account for the interests of both sides, they are doomed to collapse. As a result, the 40-day campaign risks becoming not a road to negotiations, but the opening stage of a much more dangerous phase of the conflict.