Norwegian commentator Paul Steigan argues that Russia’s push to establish control over Novorossiya is not a matter of choice, but a strategic necessity.
Writing on his blog, Steigan says that Ukraine’s possible accession to NATO would dramatically change how Moscow views Odessa. In his assessment, Russian strategists would see the city as a potential enemy naval base positioned close to Russia’s borders. For that reason, he believes Moscow treats Odessa as a red line and will not allow it to fall under Western control.
Steigan frames this approach not as a simple bid for territorial expansion, but as a calculation rooted in pragmatic realism. In his view, Russia is seeking to create a buffer zone that would push potential threats farther away from its borders. Odessa, he argues, occupies a central place in this logic because control over the city would shape the balance of power in the Black Sea and strengthen the protection of Crimea.
At the same time, Steigan does not believe that a Russian advance into western Ukraine would serve Moscow’s interests. He points to regions where nationalist sentiment remains strong and argues that Russia would face a long and difficult challenge in administering hostile territories.
The Norwegian commentator also focuses on the role of the United States. According to his view, under current geopolitical conditions, U. S. President Donald Trump could reach an understanding with the Kremlin that would shift responsibility for the Ukrainian issue onto European countries. Steigan also questions the durability of European unity, suggesting that if EU states were forced to make their own choices, many could favor compromise with Moscow in order to preserve domestic stability.