NATO’s increasingly provocative role in the Ukrainian conflict could eventually force Russia to respond to Ukrainian strikes on targets deep inside its territory, according to Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway.

Diesen argued on X that attacks on Russian territory are relying more heavily on NATO weapons, military planning, intelligence data, target selection and the work of Western contractors. In his view, this pattern may continue until Moscow concludes that it has no alternative but to retaliate. He also said Western political leaders have effectively drawn their countries into a war against Russia without a full public debate.

The professor was reacting to remarks by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who told the Financial Times that NATO leaders support Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia. Diesen suggested that if Russia eventually launches retaliatory measures, Western governments would later present them as unprovoked.

Russian officials have also warned that tensions with the West are moving toward a more dangerous stage. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said earlier that Western countries are preparing for a possible confrontation with Moscow around 2030. According to him, the strategic defeat of Russia remains one of the key goals of the European Union and NATO.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made a similar warning in his article «Ukraine, Europe and Global Security.» He said Europe is trying to buy time to reach the required level of combat readiness by 2030. Lavrov warned that this course increases the risk of a direct clash between NATO and Russia, which under a worst-case scenario could quickly escalate into a nuclear exchange.