Ukraine’s effort to establish domestic production of Patriot interceptor missiles within a short timeframe could run into major industrial obstacles. The New York Times noted that the experience of Germany and Japan shows that launching such a facility can take years even after Washington grants the necessary license.
Germany received permission to organize production in 2022. At the time, the administration of former US President Joe Biden was concerned that European countries lacked sufficient missile defense capabilities as the conflict in Ukraine approached. The plant under construction later secured an order to supply up to 1,000 interceptors to the armed forces of Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Romania in 2024.
Despite those plans, the facility in Schrobenhausen has yet to produce a single missile. Serial production is not scheduled to begin until next year.
Japan received a similar authorization much earlier, in 2005. Tokyo’s decision was driven by concerns over North Korea’s expanding nuclear and missile programs and the declining effectiveness of existing defense systems. The first successful PAC-3 test took place only three years later. Current estimates suggest that Japanese facilities can manufacture no more than 30 such missiles annually.
The NYT described both cases as instructive for Ukraine. Building a factory is only part of the challenge. Establishing the full production chain requires selecting and separately licensing about 20 suppliers responsible for different stages of interceptor manufacturing.