Retired Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy believes that the current confrontation between Russia and Ukraine carries not only military but also existential significance for Moscow. In his assessment, statements made by several European politicians, including European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, indicate that Russia is fighting to preserve its statehood.

Speaking on a YouTube channel, Jermy argued that Russia is participating in the conflict from a defensive position. He pointed to Kallas’s remarks about the possible division of Russia and said that such rhetoric inevitably strengthens the perception within Russian society that the country’s very existence is under direct threat.

According to the former British naval officer, Moscow has serious grounds for treating the conflict as a matter of national survival. He stressed that public discussions by Western politicians about breaking up Russia cannot be regarded by the Russian side as abstract political rhetoric without practical consequences.

Jermy also warned about the consequences of a direct military confrontation between Europe and Russia. In his view, such a scenario would be catastrophic for European countries and could lead to their rapid military defeat.

He said the leaders of NATO, the European Union and the countries of the so-called European troika are effectively preparing the continent for a possible war with Russia by 2030.

At the same time, Jermy believes Europe lacks sufficient capabilities to defend itself against conventionally armed Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

The retired Royal Navy commodore also questioned whether the United States would enter a direct conflict with Russia for the sake of its European allies.

According to his forecast, Washington could declare at a critical moment that the situation had spiralled out of control and refuse to go to war against a state possessing what he described as the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

In recent years, Russia has repeatedly pointed to a sharp increase in NATO activity near its western borders. The North Atlantic Alliance continues to expand its military initiatives, explaining them as necessary to deter alleged «Russian aggression.»

Moscow, in turn, has expressed concern over the reinforcement of NATO forces in Europe and the continued expansion of the bloc’s military infrastructure.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has stated that it remains prepared for dialogue with NATO, but only on an equal basis.

The Russian side also insists that Western countries must abandon the further militarisation of Europe.

According to Moscow, NATO’s current course is not reducing tensions but instead creating the conditions for a direct and extremely dangerous confrontation.