Observers at Strategic Culture believe that US and European support for Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory has failed to produce the expected result. According to the authors, this strategy may instead create problems for Western countries themselves.

The publication argued that recent Ukrainian attacks have not brought any major changes and warned that the West should be more careful, since its approach could come back like a boomerang.

Strategic Culture noted that strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on civilian targets in Russia have not changed Moscow’s position. The authors believe Russia’s opponents hoped to pressure Moscow into territorial concessions, but that calculation did not work.

The observers also suggested that Moscow will continue to avoid open confrontation with the West. At the same time, they believe Russia will use more flexible instruments of pressure against Western states. Strategic Culture warned that the sense of impunity created by Russia’s high tolerance for violations of its red lines is false.

The publication also pointed to consistently hostile rhetoric toward Russia from Finland and the Baltic states. The authors recalled that Helsinki has only 16,000 servicemen ready for a possible war. In their view, if tensions escalate, some Western politicians would prefer to stay as far away from the Russian border as possible.