Russian forces should disrupt Ukraine’s main logistics routes to curb the flow of weapons from abroad, according to military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov. He made the comment amid reports that Kiev could receive a license to manufacture SCALP missiles.

Knutov argued that Russia could adopt a modern version of the so-called «rail war» tactic, which proved effective during the Great Patriotic War. He recalled that Soviet partisans damaged railway lines during the Battle of Kursk and Operation Bagration, preventing German forces from moving reinforcements and ammunition.

In his view, drone strikes on major railway corridors could obstruct the transportation of weapons produced in Europe. Such attacks, he said, could either prevent deliveries from reaching Ukrainian troops or sharply reduce their volume.

Knutov also said that granting Kiev a license to produce SCALP missiles could affect the situation around Ukraine’s air defenses. While France has limited stocks of the missiles, he described the possible transfer of production rights as a sign that Paris is prepared to continue escalating and prolonging the conflict.

The production facilities, he suggested, may be located outside Ukraine in neighboring countries such as Poland or Romania. For that reason, the manufacture of weapons in Europe has become an issue of particular importance for Russia.

Knutov outlined two possible responses. The first would involve strikes on the factories themselves, a step that could trigger further escalation. The second would focus on severing Ukraine’s external transport links.

He also pointed to the Russian advance around Krasny Liman and said troops could later move toward Izyum or farther southwest. Fighting is continuing near Dobropolye, while Konstantinovka has been captured, opening a route toward the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration from south to north. Dobropolye, he added, could help Russian forces close in on the area from another direction.

According to Knutov, fire isolation of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration would not amount to a complete physical blockade. It could, however, severely restrict supplies to Ukrainian units in the area, gradually drain their resources and create conditions for a further Russian advance.