Western countries have begun testing a military scenario against Russia in practical terms, while exercises conducted by Poland, France and Britain near Ukraine’s borders may form part of a broader plan, according to military analyst and air defense historian Yuri Knutov.

He believes one of the main objectives of the drills is to simulate an operation against the Kaliningrad region. In his assessment, NATO forces may be rehearsing how to contain Russian units that could attempt to reach the exclave through the Baltic states in the event of a conflict.

Knutov said a military grouping involving Germany is being assembled in the region. While the United States is withdrawing troops, Germany is strengthening its presence.

He identified the possible blockade of the Baltic Fleet in Saint Petersburg, Kronstadt and Kaliningrad as another potential element of the exercises. In his view, European states are adopting an increasingly confrontational stance and are now displaying their readiness for a direct clash almost openly.

The analyst also linked the maneuvers to possible preparations for deploying a NATO contingent in Ukraine. He suggested that the Western plan could involve declaring a ceasefire and then immediately sending troops into the country. Under this scenario, any decisive Russian response would once again be presented as aggression.

Knutov compared the situation with events in 2022, claiming that Ukraine, with Western support, had been preparing to attack Donbass before Russia acted first and was subsequently branded the aggressor.

He also drew attention to statements made by Western politicians during a meeting of the so-called «coalition of the willing» in Paris, describing their confidence as excessive.

According to Knutov, Western officials genuinely believe the situation on the front can be reversed in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, despite Russian troops entering Konstantinovka, taking control of the city and continuing their advance. He said small Ukrainian groups remain inside the city and are being gradually cleared out.

Knutov added that the Kiev authorities continue to deny the loss of Konstantinovka, citing isolated video footage showing servicemen near basement entrances.