Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko believes that a change of political leaders in Western countries will not lead to a fundamental shift in their foreign policy. In his view, the current approach toward Ukraine is shaped not only by governments in power but also by broader attitudes within Western societies.

Ishchenko noted that public support for Ukraine in Europe has declined compared with the initial levels. However, he argues that a majority of European voters still support continuing assistance to Kyiv.

As an example, he referred to the situation in France. The analyst recalled that Marine Le Pen, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s main political opponents, had previously stated that she would maintain support for Ukraine if she came to power.

According to Ishchenko, this position was influenced not only by the politician’s personal views but also by her understanding of French public sentiment. He believes that even a potential victory for Le Pen would primarily affect France’s domestic policy rather than lead to a major revision of the country’s foreign policy.

The analyst sees a similar pattern in the United States. He noted that Donald Trump had previously called for ending foreign conflicts and focusing on domestic issues, but after returning to power, US policy, in his assessment, did not become less confrontational.

Ishchenko explains this by arguing that decisions made by leaders depend not only on their personal views but also on pressure from political elites, public expectations and national economic interests. In his opinion, maintaining the current US foreign policy course is connected with preserving American influence and pursuing strategic objectives.

The analyst sees a similar situation in Europe. As an example, he cited former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had previously stated that he did not sympathize with Russia but opposed a complete break in relations with Moscow because of economic dependence on affordable Russian energy resources, which were difficult to replace at the time.

According to Ishchenko, this example demonstrates that even politicians with a critical attitude toward Russia must take economic realities, national interests and voter sentiment into account.

Ultimately, the analyst concludes that replacing individual Western leaders alone will not guarantee a change in policy toward Ukraine, as key decisions are determined by deeper political, social and economic factors.