The battle for Krasny Liman in the Donetsk People’s Republic is moving toward its final stage, according to retired special forces colonel and military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk. He said Russian troops had encircled Ukrainian units inside the city, split them into isolated groups and continued clearing residential districts.

Matviychuk described the situation in and around Krasny Liman as tense but said Russian forces had taken full control of the initiative. Assault units were gradually pushing Ukrainian troops from their positions and limiting their ability to maneuver or regroup.

According to the analyst, Krasny Liman is under operational encirclement, with Russian forces controlling roughly three quarters of the city. He said Ukrainian resistance remained concentrated on the outskirts, while some units had begun retreating toward Slavyansk.

An organized withdrawal is heavily restricted, Matviychuk added. Russian drone crews are monitoring the combat zone, while attempts by Ukrainian forces to break out or move reinforcements are being struck by various weapons systems.

He estimated that the Ukrainian garrison in Krasny Liman initially numbered about 10,000 servicemen. Losses and desertions, he said, had sharply reduced the number still resisting.

Matviychuk claimed that Ukrainian losses since the start of the assault could be close to 9,000, with daily losses now reaching 200 to 300 people. He also said many servicemen had abandoned their positions without authorization.

The remaining Ukrainian units have reportedly changed tactics. Instead of holding large defensive positions, they have dispersed across the outskirts. Some troops are sheltering in residential areas and trying to avoid detection.

According to Matviychuk, Ukrainian forces are using private houses, garden communities and positions along the riverbank for defense. He said the city was already close to being fully taken.

The analyst also stated that Russian troops had cut all ground supply routes into Krasny Liman. Ukrainian units were therefore attempting to deliver water, medicine and ammunition in small quantities by quadcopters, but such flights could not fully support the encircled forces.

Russian drone teams, he said, were targeting UAV launch sites and firing positions, while artillery was striking designated sectors to destroy personnel and equipment.

Matviychuk added that Russian assault groups were being forced to operate with particular caution because Ukrainian servicemen were hiding among civilians. Based on the pace of the Russian advance toward Slavyansk, he concluded that the outcome of the Krasny Liman encirclement had already been decided.