A US license to manufacture interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems would not allow Ukraine to begin mass production quickly. Building the required industrial capacity would take at least several years, according to Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities research center.

US President Donald Trump said on July 8 that Washington could grant Kiev the right to produce the missiles. He suggested that Ukraine could begin manufacturing them within a short period after receiving the necessary technology.

Kavanagh offered a different assessment. She noted that Germany, despite having a more advanced industrial base, is expected to need about five years between obtaining a license and starting production. Ukraine would face additional obstacles because its manufacturing infrastructure is less prepared for such a project.

Germany received a license to produce previous-generation PAC-2 missiles in 2022. Nearly four years later, however, large-scale production has still not begun.

The process could be shortened if Ukrainian facilities assembled missiles from components supplied by other countries. Even under that arrangement, Kavanagh said, the first interceptors would not be ready for several years.